How BP Lost Market Cap After Deepwater Horizon Gulf Oil Spill - Market Capitalization $100 Billion Loss
70$100 Billion Wiped Off BP Market Capitalization Since Gulf Oil Spill Disaster
We have seen $100 billion wiped off BP market capitalization since the Gulf oil spill disaster. BP’s credit default swaps have also been pounded as the future of the oil major is brought into question. BP bankruptcy fears continue to rattle financial markets. The risk of a BP collapse is on par with the U.S. bank and car company collapses that were bailed out in the global financial crisis. They were bailed out with U.S. taxpayer monies. In the rush to blame BP for political points and the outrage of the environmental damage the oil major stock has been crushed. The company is at serious risk of default and bankruptcy.
Whilst many on forums are hoping this for “Evil BP” they are forgetting just how critical they are to the American and Gulf economy. In a perfect post spill world BP survives to be able to pay for the oil spill. The likelihood of the worse case 'down hole' scenario grows by the day. People should be careful for what they wish for.
BP stock hit a 14-year low today, more than half of the stock value prior to the April 20 Horizon Deepwater explosion. Concerns of a cash crisis over the clean-up and compensation costs continue to grow. The spill is now the worst oil spill in U.S. history. A spokesman for BP denies that BP was seeking bankruptcy protection. Having seen $100 billion wiped off BP market capitalization since the Gulf oil spill disaster this has become a huge rumor mill.
Oil Spill Clean Up
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BP Clean Up and Compensation Costs
The Gulf oil spill has resulted in significant cost and damage. The undetermined costs include environmental damage, bird habitat loss, oyster reef pollution, Gulf fishing industry shutdown, oil dispersant pollution and the Gulf coast economy damage. BP has put the money it has spent to date at US$2.35 billion. BP also has said that their response effort involves over 100 aircraft, 37,000 people and 4,500.
BP has now had more than 200 oil spill-related legal claims made against it. Furthermore the US Obama administration imposed suffocating political pressure that has led to BP setting aside US$20-billion for a special purpose fund for oil spill damages. The Attorney General of Florida also demanded BP deposit US$ 2.3 billion with them for Florida specific damages.
BP continues to capture oil after the top kill operation failed. Last week BP acknowledged a worst-case scenario of BP of 100,000 barrels leaking per day. The leak is also increasingly looking like the worse case ‘down hole’ leak.
Drilling Moratorium.
The Obama administration also imposed a 6-month drilling ban on deepwater oil drilling in the gulf. This has ban has led to further anxiety for the Gulf Sate economy. Many in the region are dependant on the oil and gas companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico. The ban has led to legal challenges.
On Tuesday Federal Judge Martin Feldman struck down the drilling moratorium in his New Orleans courtroom. The Federal government has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. They have asked to have Justice Feldman's decision stayed. A stay would allow six-month ban to stand pending the appeal.
Hurricane Concerns
The Gulf of Mexico also has seasonal storm risks at this time of the year. The Gulf Coast has been subject to horrendous hurricane damage over the past years. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike have all come ashore wreaking damage on different areas of the Gulf Coast.
The first potential tropical storm is making noises over the Western Caribbean Sea. The U.S. National Hurricane Center has grated there to be a chance of the storm developing into a tropical depression. If it were to develop into a Tropical Strom it would be named Alex. However most meteorological forecasting models have ‘Alex’ coming ashore near Brownsville near the Texas and Mexico borders.
Given the volatile nature of weather forecasting there are models saying the storm may turn northeast toward Florida. Such a shift would be towards the oil spill and BP’s clean up and relief drilling operations.
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Understand How Financial Disaster Risk Contagion Affects You Personally
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BP PLC’s Share and Debt Performance
BP shares have seen a relentless slide since the April 20 Horizon Deepwater rug explosion. On the FTSE BP's shares hit a low of 296 pence per share. They managed to bounce slightly to 308.3 pence per share, representing a 5.2 percent loss for the day.
BP’s American Depositary Receipts (ADR) were down 4 percent ahead of the U.S. market open. Yesterday US stock market short interest confirmed the massive short play on BP stock. BP short interest, those betting that BP’s share price will fall was 290 percent higher by early June.
Five-year credit default swaps (CDS) are a good reflection of the debt risk assigned to an asset. The CDS will widen when the underlying asset is perceived to be riskier, tighten if considered safer. BP’s CDS widened 40 basis points to 575 on the day. Tradeweb showed the BP U.S. dollar corporate bond maturing in 2015 widening 16.9 basis points to 529. The bond has an underlying yield of 3.875-percent.
Nomura issued a report on BP highlighted the credit concerns on BP’s future.
Nomura said that 'A heavy inversion of both credit yield and equity volatility suggests the market is concerned about a near-term credit event around BP'.
Nomura suggests BP turn to Sovereign wealth to shore up its liquidity. The Nomura report concluded, 'With debt expensive and asset sales taking time, we consider that equity-linked financing -- perhaps backed by Sovereign Wealth -- could prove the attractive short-term solution.'
With $100 billion wiped off BP market capitalization since the Gulf oil spill disaster the markets will be seeking comfort for any ongoing investments. The oil spill has seen huge environmental and economic damage. The political fallout has also been massive in both America and Britain. What is clear for the sake of the environment and the economy positive developments need to be immediately forthcoming.
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Comments on $100 Billion Wiped Off BP Market Capitalization Since Gulf Oil Spill DisasterLoading...
Thanks Melinda this is shaping up as big a disaster as subprime and the emotions and political games have let that become secondary news. Very critical times ahead.
Excellent analysis, billy. And as you pointed out, instead of wishing that BP would also sink into the sea, we better start hoping they survive long enough to pay for the astronomical damages.
I like that analogy..let us hope that no other deep wells will get broken in the meantime...
The only thing, Billy, is that at that depth all those wells are connected to each other. One huge pool..the right to drill in one area covered by the rights of each country.
Unless that hole is fixed then we would really, really be in trouble. Not just the US.
I tell ya what has peeved me the most .
BP met with Obama . And were more then eager to work with the U.S. Government . Obama has beat the hell out of them . Then walks out and says .I made them pay 20 Billion . Obama didn't have to MAKE them . They were willing .
BP has screwed up over and over . They don't seem to get a grip on anything . Put the wrong PR folks out front . The usual stiff upper lip type . But they are trying . And our Government seems to take pleasure in them failing . But OUR Government was all tears for GM . Obama is starting to tick off the world . Not just America .
100 B is a lot in he market . I don't think BP will really recover . Because it will never end . Government and Green nuts are going to pick pocket them forever .
Thx Billy
drbj that is exactly the point if BP goes the disaster contagion affects are well disastrous for all of us, the environment and the people I actually did another hub about that as it affects your mutual funds and investments.
Melinda yes we hope there aren't for sure. One thing is all deep water wells need to have the acoustic control device that all the Norwegian ones do and the modern rigs here do. This is one thing the US admin let BP not have. The oil reserves aren't all connected actually that is a bit of a myth doing the rounds. There are very big pools yes. What really disgusts me is the political games by all sides in this disaster. My theory of conspiracy theories of conspiracy theories holds true to form here. I amy have to do a hub on conspiracy theories from this spill I think.
TuckerP yes you are right Obama has not handled this well and combine this by an arrogant or indifferent approach by the BP CEO and you had everyone angry and looking at it with blinders - when the effort should have been containment and recovery from day one. Overseas looks at this in black and white without political bias and yes Obama is not looking good, check out his meeting with Medvedev from Russia and how that has been perceived. Now take this a step further Russia is now the world's biggest oil producer and they rely on Exxon at Sakhalin, Russia has never treated US oil companies like we have - play a few scenarios out here folks.
One more thing to investigate why the current administration went easy on BP in their environmental tests for Horizon Deepwater- a hint check out the RUSSIAN joint venture TNK-BP and the political saga. I am so disgusted at the damage to the environment and to the Gulf people and lets not forget the 11 people who died. Then we have the legal games going on with Transocean trying to escape liability - why doesn't our administration EVER mention that!
100 billion is a lot - wait for this to become the latest "too big to fail" and all our taxpayer dollars go up in smoke there to.
A very good description of the situation, billyausten. Also very frightening when you think about the long range effects, from the fishing industry to the restaurant industry to tourism -- and that does not even take into account environmental disaster!
Ohh thank you for that Billy. I am glad I am wrong about the pools being connected to each other. Whew!~!
I am looking forward to reading your conspiracy theory.
Billy, as you know I'm down for a conspiracy that involves the white house more than BP.
BP has helped this country over the years in more than oil.
They have bought and operated copper mines and other businesses that kept them going. They bought and operated Kennecott Copper here in Arizona that kept the mine open and allowed many workers of 30+ years to make retirement age and collect their pensions, my dad was one of them. After 36 years he came close to loosing it all and they kept him on until 62.5 and he was able to collect a super pension package that made life easy for him after 40 years of work. They were generous as far as benefits, he actually ended up with a better end package with health care that is good, still paying after his death for my mothers care as a stroke paralyzed her and she is in a nursing home all bills payed. So throwing rocks at them is not right.
There is more to this than what we know.,50
the effect of the spill is surely will haunt us for many years, The conspiracy theory is there and I like that you brought that one, Good analysis, Maita
I Know a lot of people are hoping that they go belly up but that means a lot of unemployed people who had nothing to do with the spill. Not to mention the people who have suffered loses will not be compensated!
There is just no good side to this oil spill deal, not for the environment, employment or investment. Isn't looking good. Thanks for keeping us informed. And I also get tired of politicians using every crisis to try to make the other side look bad, both sides, all the time. (:v
Mysterylady yes there is so much to this sad calamity - much of it overlooked with the spill being the largest environmental disaster in US history.
Melinda I am busy researching the conspiracy theories - there are some doosies.
Thanks 50 for that story on BP and look after your parents as they did. That sounds like a rarity in this day and age. Unfortunately good stories like that are well hidden by a controlling media and political agenda. Throwing rocks at BP has obvious benefits for political gain and for removing one out of the circle of blame. Those doing it obviously never thought of the consequences, or did they?
Maita you are right the effects are ongoing and will be for many years - the degree of the immediate impact will only be hardened should BP fail.
Nifty yes people need to be careful what they wish for. Blind vengeance doesn't help here. The political expediency has done nothing positive. One can only hope things start tipping towards the positive here going forward. If not I really fear for the environment, the region and the nation in many ways.
Valerie I am glad you agree - I am so tired of self serving politicians. What is even more tiring is people still playing along with their charades. Are we really that blind we cannot see?
I am terrified of hurricanes, it can mess up so much.
Good or bad company, 200 spills is not O.K.
100,000 barrels leaking a day? Is that what it takes to get that oil?
Something is not right about that industry. When would they learn?
The damage is done and you are making some good points yet I feel that the game is bigger then the players.
I agree with drbj. Everyone is angry at BP, and rightly so, but they need support to make things right.
TKumah the game does seem bigger than the players doesn't it.
HappyHer yes we need to be careful we don't cut our collective noses off despite our face.
Billy -I am simply confused,this brick batting will take us no where,would they ever be able to find a solution? Are they really up to it?Is it sorta wait and watch?
What is they say..."Be Careful what you pray for ..."
The Doom Sayers seem to be getting their wish the Evil BP is suffering and may disappear into bankruptcy and people are cheering Serves them Right.
Have these people any idea how big the aftershock of such a collapse will have not just in the US but around the world ?
Not to mention the impact of un employment which will be huge, but how about pension investment companies that have $1 in 7 is invested in BP....
I'm not sure who needs to shut up but the media whipping up a shit storm is not helping with a diet of disinformation. Just like the Titanic disaster, everybody is rushing to blame the Captain of the iceberg !
Confucius He say, "Better to keep mouth closed and let the world think you are a fool !
What disgusts me are the various groups that go around trying to act holier than thou and cast blame. A reasonable person spends their time looking for solutions first and only then after the problem (the leak is plugged in this case) is solved do they spend time trying to discover why the problem (explosion) happened so it can be prevented in the future. This is a kin to trying to assign blame for a car accident while ignoring that people are lying by the road dying. One thing many people aren't considering is what great innovation will be discovered in trying to stop this leak.
Most of us are not concerned with their finances; we are concerned with the finances of the rest of the world. I didn't hear a lot of whaling when big banks gutted most of America's pension and savings funds or put people out on the street through no fault of their own. Big corporations need to grow into their roles as capitalists; they pay the overhead for their big profits; they play fair or get crushed; they are willing to cooperate with the rules; or they fail. Capitalism is that simple. You can't be a successful capitalist and a corporate welfare baby at the same time.
Suny they are plowing ahead with the relief wells - that will be a 6 -8 weeks most likely. The cleanup and containment has been hampered by the Government meddling - or blocking that people are seeing it for what it is now, very sad. The well was so deep and looking like a down hole hence the time and outflow of oil. Not a good result for anyone here - the worse off of course are the innocent victims - nature, the unsuspecting stockholders, the Gulf coast community and others
Merlin you summed it perfectly :)
Electricsky yes we live in this world of no responsibility and self gratification of blaming all and sundry. Your analogy of a car accident is very apt. That has been my thought from day one - stop the rot, clean it up and then find the bastard who did this. Sort out who enabled it and fix the holes in the system that allowed that to happen. Perhaps that is too logical and with not enough hate for this sneering world.
Chasing Cars I like this last sentence "You can't be a successful capitalist and a corporate welfare baby at the same time.". That is the path America goes down now with these disgusting bailouts of the banks, insurance companies and GM. How in God's name does Goldman Sachs get access to taxpayer at 0% and the government to take their losses and then pay the bonuses and then a b/s SEC charge that will be settled keeps the masses contented and not looking further.
The thing is with BP it isn't their finances it the interfering with the rest of the country and world. The action by the US President to appease his disgruntled masses is playing with fire. We are all peed off but one has to think of the solution before fixing the problem - playing up to blind political stereotypes has really created even bigger problems going forward. Your quote is a reminder of where we go when capitalism and social welfare meet - moral hazard indeed.
Very educative. Thanks http://newsflavor.com/opinions/gulf-oil-spill/
Dak thanks for your comment and post
Terrific forum! I love it. Still, I'm cynical enough to believe that if this oil blowout had occurred off, say, Nigeria, or some place far removed from the 'good ol' US of A, it would be making about page six of the New York Times once a fortnight and BP's shares wouldn't have moved a mite.
As it is, it's upset the United States' citizens, who are likely to bring some pressure to bear on the Oil Giants. Who knows...we might go to other sources of power at long last.
Tom your cynicism is not unfounded. You hardly even hear about the huge oil spill up the gulf 20 years ago that this disaster is bearing down on. Case in point is the Union Carbide disaster and 10,000 plus dead in India and the environment tarnished. How many even know about it or the fact 95% of Belarus is contaminated by radiation by the Chernobyl spill for how many thousand years. At least they are angry about it but it is a large result of apathy towards disaster potential that enabled the scenario. As far as new energy the public will only change if the price is right IMHO. How quickly people forget - the gulf coast won't but no doubt the rest of America will.
Good article, informative and thought provoking.
Not long ago I received an email announcing that people should start boycotting BP gas stations. My response was this: "Oh, so it's ok to start buying gas from terrorists again?"
It amazes me how people are so reactive without thinking about how these actions may effect everyone and every thing around them.
By boycotting BP and "putting them out of business" that leaves who exactly to pay for the oil clean up and where will the money come from to pay the many legal claims brought against them?
If BP should go down the tubes as a company, God forbid, I guess the good ole' U S Taxpayer will end up paying the claims and for the clean up.
Sorry, but I think, more than ever, we should be buying gas at every BP station we drive by to support the poor people in the Gulf states who are jobless right now and looking to BP for financial releif, not to mention, so BP can keep paying for the clean up.
As a tax payer I DO NOT want my TAX DOLLARS to be spent this way.
Think about it, if everyone boycotts BP arn't we just cutting off our nose to spite our face?
Miss Jkim your response is exactly the point I was trying to make - the last thing America needs is another bailout, mass job losses and more taxpayer money going into a hole. The problem is we are now a land of Sheeple it seems. There will come a time when people realize what is going on - hopefully sooner rather than later.
A really thought-provoking hub Billy. In UK, many are worried about the future of BP because there are so many whose pension fund relies heavily on the price of BP's shares. I agree with the points made about Union Carbide and Chernobyl. The image that comes to mind whenever I think about this disaster is of one oil-soaked Pelican, tortured by the oil spill. It is that image that haunts me when I think of all the damage to wildlife and marine life - it's so desperately sad.
I feel for BP shareholders and workers. I felt for bank shareholders and workers. I felt for car manufacturer shareholders and employees. Even in the case of Toyota. I feel for the gas station owners who are being boycotted.
BUT. We have been making this argument time and time again that our CEOs who run these companies, with fancy business degrees are the end all to be all. They are the ones with the expertise and the knowlege to get the job done and provide value to their owners. That's why they have justified paying these guys umpteen million dollar salaries with umpteen million dollar prensions and other benefits.
For what?
To be felt sorry for when they get it wrong? I'm sick of it. Yes, people are going to get hurt. But in this when are we going to finally stop and tell ourselves it's a great big lie. These guys are paid WAY TOO MUCH for nothing, and when they get it wrong...who gets hurt?
Us. The little time shareholder. The hourly employee. The taxpayers. These are all wakeup calls.
I'm for the firing of Tony Hayward for example. But what does he lose? He's gotten hundreds of millions of dollars out of the company. He's been set up over the years. He'll lose his job. He'll lose his title. He may even lose his respect. He will not starve.
The guy on the rig is another question.
It's painful, but it is what it is. It's also another reason for shareholders to remind boards how important value is to them—and how unrelated CEO compensation is to obtaining that value.
Slightly off topic, I apologize. But I had to rant, and BECAUSE its a rant, a little this way and that.
So, hopefully not confusing either. :)
My main gist is simply that we cannot continue to give companies a pass for bad behavior EVEN to save jobs. Businesses are SUPPOSED TO do the right thing. WE are supposed to hold them accountable when they do not. So why aren't we?
Alison thanks for your comments. It is so desperately sad. I think we have to control our despair and hope the fallout is measured otherwise I really fear for the Gulf Coast and the marine wildlife. People quickly forget and it easy for them to spill blame and anger but look how easy they have forgotten previous disasters- me included I am not preaching here!
Springboard thank you for the rant - it is not off base at all. Indeed CEOs are masters of finding scapegoats and deflecting blame - really no different to politicians. While I don't want BP to go broke it is for the Gulf Caost economy, the cleanup and the hard working rig workers and the pension investors that I don't want them to go broke for. The disgraceful leadership on all counts needs to be held responsible - charges against the environment, against stewardship, made bankrupt etc etc. It makes me fume that those who ran Citibank, Bear Stearns, Merril lynch and the rest get out with billions - yes billions whilst the 'little man' rots and doesn't wake up and fight about it. I say little man as that is what the BP chairman said. Also I would like to see recognition for the leaders, corporates and people that get it right - there are plenty. People like BP end up with a whole industry demonized, why because it is easy to. thanks Springboard the world needs more people like you to feel passion!
Billy, if you'll remember, one of the ones who got it right, and who challenged the status quo was fired by BP and is now considered a whistleblower. Another example of BP's being complicit in this spill.
I too don't want to see economies hurt, nor workers especially. Still, the mess must be cleaned up and if it takes BP down to pay for it and get it done, that's what has to happen.
Perhaps we should start sending the bills to Tony Hayward himself. Obviously he was paid a lot of money to not have a clue what his company was doing. Ultimately he was the cause of this whole thing—he's the captain of the ship. He should go down with it.
As for bailing anyone out. No way. No more. Someone can come along and buy the battered company. But not one more penny should come out of taxpayers pockets to pay for corporate mistakes.
Furthermore, we really need to take a closer look in this country at CEO salaries and worker salaries. There are sooo many examples of CEOs NOT justifying their salaries. And let's face it. Workers work hard and I think ALL American workers are underpaid.
Springboard I am with you on CEO's being held responsible and if CEOS fail their pay or careers should reflected however we have seen the boys club at work time and time again. I agree that BP was likely negligent knowing their past record and the workers who are suing are saying and the Haliburton warnings in the gas leak - makes no sense to take those risks. The only answer can be cost savings. Oil companies like Exxon and Shell have stringent safety rules - BP seems to be repeat violators. I am worried about the bailout as Obama did all this noise killed the market cap so that cuts a lot of borrowing. Now he and Cameron from the UK have said BP can't fail - so you know what that means. Like if they care what they do with taxpayers money!
Like I said, BP should be bough out. Taxpayers should have nothing to do with it. One more of these and I think we can guarantee Obama is done in 2012. I think he IS done anyway. But this would seal it.
Springboard I agree but who will buy BP? The liabilities are huge - I can see people cherry picking the assets but unless the liabilities are quaranteed I don't see a corporate buyer here. Now the stockmarket is getting smacked with the bP news, Spain banks getting smacked and US NFP on Friday - this isn't looking pretty right now. Obama was in seeing Bernanke today - I wonder how much money he asked to be printed?
Interesting read, interesting comments. It was an accident - I don't know why Springboard is getting all worked up.
Both UK and US want an end to the situation. Let's just be positive and hope the matter is resolved soon.
Lady E thanks for your comments. The reason people get worked up so much is how the accident happened and some of the comments since. The government response has ben another source. Plus this is the largest environmental disaster in U.S. history - it is an accident yes but the smell of cost cutting and trying to pass blame remains.
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msorensson Level 3 Commenter 23 months ago
Oh dear.. One hundred billion off of capitalization is a lot of money...for anyone, Billy.
You are right on your analysis..
Thank you!