World Energy Crisis - Pakistan in Electricity Power Shortage - India Water Crisis

We have a world energy crisis; Pakistan power shortage is real and in a critical region of the world. In the west we pontificate about Green house cases, driving a Prius and turning power off for a day. Spare a thought for people who wish that were their problem. Pakistan is a nation that is critical for the world’s fight on terrorism and growth of Islamist militancy. It is critical for the stabilization of the most vibrant part of the world economy, the Sub-continent of Asia.

Pakistan is sitting on a politically explosive issue that could exacerbate its law and order problems. A problem that overhangs Pakistan and threatens to push Pakistan further behind is it’s severe power shortage. Pakistani industry has been crippled; the main export sector of textiles and largest manufacturing employer is teetering. This is an issue that threatens to further destabilize the region.

Pakistan Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani is embroiled in a particularly explosive dilemma for Pakistan; it’s severe electricity shortage. In the west we want the third world to be producing at full capacity, buying our services and production goods and demand they fix their law and order issues. However we never spare a thought for how they can do that, other than selling them goods or using military aid to enforce a solution. What about the infrastructure, what about the basics?

It has been documented that Pakistan’s energy power production has a shortfall of between 4,000-5,000 megawatts (MW) after a sharp fall in water levels at two major hydro electricity water reservoirs. To put this in perspective Pakistan has a production capacity of about 16,500 MW, this shortfall represents over a quarter of its production.

Additionally private power producers are also running below their capacity. To counter this power providers have had to use load shedding to enforce demand restrictions. These typically mean 6-8 hours a day of no power in cities. Cuts are much more frequent in Pakistan’s rural areas. 

These power blackouts have increasingly fed an already angry mood in Pakistan. There have been a number of violent protests; we have actually seen these become commonplace. This continues to threaten an already vulnerable state. These often degenerate into planned anti-west and anti-American protests.

Men are seen beating others over the power shortages, and burning tires seems to be the favored means of protest in many of the last urban areas. The resentment has been further flamed by Government officials issuing contradictory promises on when power cuts would end.

Crime and terror is also able to function much more easily in power shortages. There are the other crime benefits from darkness and the necessity of survival. One of the huge benefits for terror is psychological. People have long been subjected to idle times to be indoctrinated with the failings of modern society.

Whilst a succession of Pakistani government spent billions on military build up and propaganda they failed to take basic steps to improve their economy for advancement. Future growth was never taken into account and a combination of inertia and incompetence saw new power generation capacities delayed and dam projects abandoned that would have boosted the necessary power output. 

Adding to the problem is power theft. How bad is the situation? Analysts say that a combination of outdated grids and electricity theft that is out of control means some grid companies experience line losses of between 30 and40 percent. This has obviously further disadvantaged those at the end of the power line so to speak.

The theft has decimated grid companies’ finances, which has flown onto the independent power producers (IPPs) not running their plants anywhere near capacity. They simply cannot pay their own fuel bills, as they are owed money from the grid companies. Thus we have a circle of electricity malfunction and poverty at play. 

The issue threatens a total collapse of the region as people fed up with the previous military government have been left severely disappointed with 2-year-old civilian government. The growth of Islamist militancy has been helped along by this disillusionment. Clearly the issue leaves the current government and Pakistan vulnerable.

The U.S. government has pledged $125 million to revamp the Pakistan energy sector. Last month the United States and Pakistan governments outlined steps to refurbish existing power stations. They have also slated building new dams and new permanent power plants. The answer so far have been controversial rental power plants (RPPs), basically temporary plants while permanent projects are completed. 

Pakistan’s power sources have not adapted to growth, alternatives or capacity. Pakistan relies primarily on thermal resources for its power generation. Hydroelectricity has been the only area Pakistan has tried to develop capacity, even so these developments are mainly in the feasibility and design stages.

There has been virtually no development of wind or solar power. These sources have been long cited as solutions along the coastal  Sindh and Baluchistan provinces and the desert regions of Sindh and Punjab. Power analysts say that the Sindh coast to Keti Bandar wind corridor has average wind speeds double needed to empower wind turbines.

Nuclear power is obviously a very sensitive area like Pakistan with a history of military and unstable leadership. Pakistan does have two nuclear power plants, a Karachi and a Chashma plant. Their combined installed capacity is only 462 MW however.

Hydroelectric power generation is the way the government is moving with huge dams planned. The Kalabagh dam on the Indus River has been planned without thought to the downstream provinces relying on water for irrigation. So the pattern of a disaffected population continues with poorer planning and consultation. Before we even get to hydro power generation from these new dams there needs to be consensus on affected regions land acquisition and the resettlement of these displaced people. It seems none of these issues were addressed when the new dams were planned.

This leaves us with getting consensus and generating wind and solar power. None of these solutions are going to be quick and the world energy crisis; Pakistan power shortage issues are likely to get worse before they are better. I will keep a keen watch how this situation develops given its critical affect on the terror situation and the economies of the region.